On November 7, the People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center that the inter -bank foreign exchange market RMB (7.2720, -0.0070, -0.10%) intermediate price was: 1 US dollar to RMB 7.1776, and the intermediate price of the previous trading day was reported at 7.1780 yuan., Raise 4 base points in a single day.The middle price of the RMB rose slightly for the fourth consecutive trading day.
In terms of shore and offshore RMB to the US dollar exchange rate, both recovered the 7.30 mark after continuous rise, and fluctuated around 7.27 and 7.28, respectively.On November 7th, the opening price of the RMB on the shore was 7.2713, which was slightly high than the closing of the previous trading day; the opening price of the offshore RMB was 7.2811, which was basically the same compared with the closing price of the previous trading day.
In the past two trading days, the exchange rate of the US dollar to the US dollar has risen rapidly from the 7.32 mark. The increase in the market has exceeded 500 base points, and the offshore RMB has rebounded for 4 consecutive trading days.As of 18:00 on November 7, the exchange rate of the US dollar to the US dollar was reported at 7.2852, and the depreciation of the daily depreciation was 0.13%.Since November, the exchange rate of the US dollar to the US dollar has risen by 0.44%, and the exchange rate of offshore RMB to the US dollar has risen by 0.72%.
Since November, the RMB rebound trend has obvious. For the reason, Zhou Maohua, a macroex researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, pointed out that the trend of the RMB exchange rate is still affected by internal and external factors.Among them, the external factors are that the Fed has recently suspended interest rate hikes and non -agricultural diving, promoting the sharp decline in US bond interest rates and the US dollar, which has favorable for non -US currency; US debt interest rates have fallen, US dollars weaken, and non -US currencies such as RMB are good.
On November 3, Eastern Time, the US Department of Labor's October employment data was weakened in October, and the unemployment performance was also less than expected., Falling to the weakest level since mid -September 2023.During the same period, the RMB exchange rate was strong counterattack.
In addition, the Customs Department released data on November 7 showing that in the 10 months of 2023, the total value of my country's import and export value was 3.432 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.03%year -on -year.Among them, exports were 1.955 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.4%; imports were 14.77 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.5%; the trade surplus was 4.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2%.
As the external pressure of the RMB exchange rate has slowed down, the internal active policy effect has gradually emerged, and the market has better expectations for the RMB exchange rate trend.However, it is also important to note that factors such as maintaining differentiation of monetary policy at home and abroad, and the spread of spreads between China and the United States still put pressure on the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate.
In response to the next stage of the RMB exchange rate, Zhou Maohua pointed out that from the perspective of the trend, the positive factors of the RMB exchange rate continued to accumulate, and it continued to be optimistic about the trend of the RMB during the year.Domestic data reflects that the restoration of economic activities is significantly enhanced, and the economy is returning to the level of potential growth; my country's foreign trade shows toughness, and international revenue and expenditure are basically balanced;On the other hand, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, employment and other indicators indicate that the US economic prospects will slow down.From the perspective of the dollar long cycle, the US dollar should currently be in or close to the weak cycle.
Yang Haiping, a researcher at the Institute of Securities and Futures of the Central University of Finance and Economics and the general manager of the Research and Development Department of the Bank of Inner Mongolia, also emphasized that in the next stage, the expected fluctuations caused by the Federal Reserve monetary policy or monetary policy statement are still an important factor affecting the RMB exchange rate.The good sustainability, and the concentrated foreign exchange settlement at the end of the year is also the influencing factor of the RMB exchange rate.
