The US Treasury's bond strategists said in a Reuters survey that the return on US Treasury bonds in the next few months will decline, although it is not as sharp as the previous forecast.This is the fourth consecutive time that the yield of 10 -year Treasury bonds has been touched.
After the third quarter of this month's "amazing growth" and the Federal Reserve officials stated that the news of the federal fund interest rate in the short term, these yield forecasts have been improved.
Last month, the 10 -year Treasury yield has exceeded 5%since July 2007, a total of more than a percentage point higher than the low point in August.
Worried that Pakistani conflicts may be upgraded, since the beginning of October, 10 -year Treasury yields have fallen sharply, partly because investors seek risk aversion.
From November 8th to 14th, in a survey conducted by Reuters, most of them came from analysts and bond strategists from seller companies to adhere to the prediction of a decline in yields.
According to the median value of 44 -bit strategists, it is expected that the yield of 10 -year Treasury bonds in the next three months will drop by 10 basis points, from the current 4.62%to 4.52%. Compared with the October and September investigationDuring the month, nearly 40 basis points were reduced.
As of the end of April, the yield will be reduced to 4.30%, and it will decrease to 4.00%after a year.
It is worth noting that about one -third of the respondents expect that by the end of January next year, the yield will be higher than the current level. Many large Wall Street banks have changed their views.Essence
However, when asked whether the yield of 10 -year Treasury bonds in the current cycle has been touched, 94%of the respondents (30 of 32) were overwhelmingly expressed that they had touched.
In the previous three -month Reuters survey, the predictor proved that their predictions were wrong within a few days because they had predicted the same situation.
Although the first interest rate cut has been postponed from March a few months ago to mid -2024, the interest rate futures contract shows that nearly 100 basis points will be reduced before December next year.
A separate Reuters survey found that the greater risk faced by this prospect was that the first rate of interest rate cutting may be later than the expected time for economists.In the next time, analysts have different opinions on the main influencing factors of US bond yields. Half considers the increasingly worse fiscal prospects, and the other half is considered to be a hedging transaction.
Other options include quantitative tightening, foreign investment evacuation, and short -term supply of US Treasury bonds for auctions.
According to this survey, the current 5.04%of the two -year Treasury yield is expected to decrease by about 20 basis points by the end of January next year, and then dropped to 4.00%within one year.
If it is realized, this will mean that the inverted spread between the 2 -year and 10 -year Treasury yields in the United States will be completely reversed by the end of October 2024, and this is a reliable indicator of recession in history.Essence
