The Federal Reserve's July Interest Conference announced that the federal fund interest rate was raised by 25 basis points to 5.25%-5.5%.This is the Federal Reserve's suspension of interest rate hikes once again in June. It is also the 11th rate hike since March 2022, which is of great significance to the global financial environment.Moreover, the Bank of Japan, which has adopted a currency easing policy for decades, maintained a key short-term interest rate at -0.1%on July 28, but adjusted the wording of yield curve control (YCC) policy.The rate allows long -term interest rate fluctuations to exceed 0.5%to a certain extent, which is generally regarded by the international market as a precursor to the normalization of the Bank of Japan's attempt to reverse long -term loose policies and transfer to the normalization of currencies.
Lv Haozhen, a researcher at the Bank of China , believes that the global interest rate level in the second half of the year will still maintain a high level, and the vulnerability of low -income national debt is rising.
The US policy interest rate has risen to the highest level in 22 years, and this round of interest rate hike is approaching the end.At present, controlling inflation is still the primary goal of the Federal Reserve.From the perspective of the rhythm of interest rate hikes, the Fed properly slows down the rhythm of interest rate hikes to avoid super -adjustment. Non -continuous interest rate hikes can provide more economic data for decision -making.In June this year, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3%year -on -year, a new low of more than 2 years.However, the core CPI that reflects rents rose 4.8%year -on -year, and it was still high.In terms of employment, the number of non -agricultural employment increased by 209,000 after the adjustment of the American season in June, below 230,000, and the return of employment growth slowly declined.The Federal Reserve stated in the interest statement that the current inflation rate is still "far higher than" the target of 2%.In order to continue to curb inflation, the Fed continued to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to increase the policy interest rate to the highest level since 2001.From the perspective of the end of interest rate hikes, the latest line map announced by the Fed in June shows that two -thirds Fed officials have expected that the policy interest rate will be higher than 5.5%in 2023, which means that if there is data as a support, it will not rule out that it will continue to be added September to continue to be added in September.The possibility of interest.In the financial market, the current high interest rate in the United States has continued to tighten financial conditions, which has negatively affected financial systems, real estate and investment.Will reduce interest rates.
The decline is weakened, and the US economy's soft landing faith has increased.According to the Federal Reserve interest statement, in terms of economic situation assessment, American economic activities have been growing in a gentle pace, and inflation has eased.It has ended; employment growth is still strong, the unemployment rate remains low, and labor demand still significantly exceeds supply.In the evaluation of the banking industry, the Bank of America is sound and tough.At present, the U.S. economic soft landing expectations are significantly enhanced.As of July 15, 2023, the number of people who applied for unemployment gold for the first time was 228,000, a decrease of 9,000 compared with last week, and the average surrounding value fell to a low of 237,500.Many vacant jobs and strong salary still support the US consumption expenditure, indicating that the US economy "soft landing" hopes to grow bigger and bigger.
