After continuous rising continuously, RMB (7.1230, -0.0139, -0.19%) continued to appreciate the value of the year.
On November 29th, the offshore RMB exchange rate session was about 200 points stronger, approaching the 7.11 mark, and reached a maximum of 7.1135. The opening of the RMB exchange rate on the shore also rose by more than 200 points, opening at 7.1165, and then fell slightly.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve officials spoke unexpectedly. Under the atmosphere of the "pigeon", the US dollar index (102.7398, 0.01112, 0.01%) plummeted.At present, the US dollar index has fallen below 103, at the lowest at the lowest at 102.46 in the morning. Since November, the US dollar index has fallen by nearly 4%.
In addition to external promotion factors, the industry believes that the recent rise in the RMB exchange rate is the "trust ticket" of the market for China's economic development.After the continuous appreciation, the upward space of the RMB exchange rate has been opened.At the end of the previous year, there are still some factors such as seasonal foreign exchange settlement, anti -personality, export recovery, and the US dollar index further, and support the RMB exchange rate to further strengthen.
Retoning more than 2,000 points within the month
Renminbi rebound momentum continues
The strong recovery of the renminbi is the main line of the foreign exchange market in November.
Since November, the exchange rate on the shore and offshore renovation has changed the trend of the previous two months of sidewalking, and has opened a sharp rebound. The increase has exceeded 2000 points, which has risen more than 2.5%and 2.8%, respectively.
Regarding the strengthening of the latest RMB exchange rate, the industry believes that the unexpected shift of the Federal Reserve officials is a great help for potential interest rate cuts.
As the US dollar index loses the 103 mark, the non -US currency rises, the euro (1.0990, -0.0004, -0.04%) rose 1.10 to the US dollar, the first time since August; the pound (1.2706, 0.0010, 0.08%) rose 1.27.It rose about 3.8%in November.The maximum of the yen rose 0.9%to the dollar and rose to 148.
RMB exchange rate upward space has been opened
Looking back at the recent rise in the renminbi, the global central bank's tightening cycle has entered the end, the exchange rate policy has continued to increase, and the financial management department has continuously released internal and external factors such as positive signals to form a joint force to become a common push.
Recently, the Fed, the Bank of Canada, the British Bank and the European Central Bank have "followed the soldiers" at the latest meeting and keep interest.Many institutions believe that the global interest rate hike cycle may end.
In addition, since this year, the steady exchange rate policy has continued to increase, and the financial management department has continuously released positive signals for the RMB exchange rate to stabilize market expectations.
The "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report in the Third quarter of 2023" released by the central bank pointed out that the floating exchange rate system that is based on market supply and demand is based on market supply and demand, referring to a basket of currency, and management, based on the long -term, and currently, the current is currently.Resolutely correct the cyclical behavior of the market, resolutely deal with the disruption of market order behavior, resolutely prevent the risk of exchange rate over -adjusting, prevent the formation of unilateral consistency expectations and self -strengthening, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
The industry believes that the recent rise in the RMB exchange rate is the "trust ticket" of the market for China's economic development.Since the third quarter, the major macroeconomic indicators such as consumption, investment, and corporate profits have appeared in marginal improvement, indicating that the domestic economic stability signal has become more and more clear.The active expectation of the economy promotes the significantly warm up of the emotions of the foreign exchange market.
After the continuous appreciation, the upward space of the RMB exchange rate has been opened.According to the research report of CICC, the recovery of the RMB exchange rate in this round is likely not to end.At the end of previous years, there are still several factors such as seasonal foreign exchange settlement, anti -personality, export recovery, and the possibility of further decline in the US dollar index to support the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate.
