In August, the RMB's exchange rate against the US dollar was re -pressure, falling below the low point at the end of June, in line with our point of view in early July, that is, if the Chinese economy continues to be weak in a month -on -month, the market confidence may be frustrated and the RMB exchange rate continues to pressure.In the month, the RMB multilateral exchange rate remained basically stable, and the three major exchange rate indexes rose and decline.In the context of the continuation of the RMB exchange rate, since September, the central bank's macro -prudential measures have been further increased.
With the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate to near the previous year's low point, the market entity maintained rationality, and the exchange rate leverage adjustment effect of "low (appreciation) buying high (depreciation) selling" was played normally.On the one hand, the willingness to settle the exchange for market exchange is significantly enhanced, and the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market in the domestic passenger trading is narrowed; on the other hand, in the context of the differentialization of the Chinese and US currency policies, the ratio of long -term foreign exchange settlements will not decline, that is, the increase in market entities increaseThe hedging intensity of the RMB appreciation risk.
The scale of net outflow of funds under land converge has a record high. The scale of net reduction in foreign capital reduction under bonds has increased.During the same period, residents' cross -border travel demand resumed the expansion of service trade deficit.However, as an important part of cross -border funds , the net inflow of funds under the trade of goods still maintains a high scale, which to a certain extent underwent the pressure on the flow of funds under securities investment and service trade.
Risk reminder: Overseas financial risks exceed expectations, the main central bank's currency tightening exceeds expectations, and the domestic economic recovery is not as good as expected.
