Recently, the US dollar index (105.3381, 0.0513, 0.05%) once quickly killed the fall, continued to fall on Thursday and Friday, and fell below the recent continuous shocking platform, a minimum of a new low since September in late September.And the US debt yields are short and the mid -term has fallen. What impact does it affect the market?
From this year's general direction, the US dollar index is constantly rising, climbing to the early October high 107.35, and then turning on the vibration.However, under the drive of two large yin lines last Thursday and Friday, it fell below the horizontal volatile platform that lasted more than a month, a new low since September 21.This Monday continued to fall, and the trend of decline adjustment was basically formed in this round of decline.
However, the Wind market shows that this round of the US dollar index fell by about 1.1%from the highest point, which is significantly lower than the adjustment range of the first three times this year.Among them, the first wave of the US dollar index fell slightly from January to early February, with a decline of more than 1.6%; the second wave was a decline of more than 3.5%in early March to mid -April; the third wave was from June to July July July JulyAdjustment of more than 4%in the middle.Compared with the adjustment of the US dollar index this round, it is not enough. Under the Fed's continuous suspension of interest rate hikes, the US dollar index will continue to continue.
With the continuous suspension of interest rate hikes in the Federal Reserve, the rate of short -term and medium -term US bonds fell.According to Wind data, from the perspective of the trend of US debt yields in the short term, the overall fluctuation of the overall shock is obvious this year.At the beginning of the year, it gradually increased from 4.42%to 5.61%at the end of September, and then fell slightly to the latest 5.56%, a small drop.The yield of the mid -term 10 -year US bonds has recently rebuilt sharply, and has fallen from 4.98%in late October to 4.57%. The decline rate is faster, which is significantly different from short -term cash.It can be seen that once the Fed stops or eases, the yield of US debt is also expected to fall steadily.The US dollar index may gradually weaken.
The US dollar index fell sharply, the Federal Reserve continued to suspend interest rate hikes, and the market outlook was expected to increase interest rates. It had a positive effect on precious metals and had the opportunity to rise.
1. Link: Fed's currency policy tightening is expected to ease, and it is expected to significantly boost global risk preferences. Domestic risk appetite restoration will be suppressed to the bond market.
2. Profit: The Fed's tightening is expected to slow down, and the US dollar is soft. The pressure of the depreciation of the RMB (7.2689, -0.0111, -0.15%) has eased. The pressure of the stable exchange rate of the central bank will be alleviated. The exchange rate facing domestic monetary policy and capital interest rate will face the exchange rateThe constraint becomes smaller.Therefore, after the depreciation pressure of the RMB exchange rate is relieved, under the background of weak domestic fundamentals+financial deleveraging supervision motivation, it is expected that the central bank will still need to maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity, and the capital regain will return to the loose and profitable bond market.
Looking back, 2018
Year-20123.10
During the period, 10Y
The highest correlation coefficient between China Treasury yields, 10Y US debt yields and the US dollar index is 10Y 10Y
The correlation coefficient of China Bond and the US dollar index is -0.66,10Y
The correlation coefficients of Chinese bonds and 10Y US debt yields are low.However, the US dollar index has driven the sharp adjustment of the domestic bond market. Generally, it is necessary to see that domestic capital interest rates have shifted from loose to tight. At present, domestic capital interest rates are significantly higher than policy interest rates. The probability of this situation is lower.We are more inclined to the Fed's tightening expected marginal slowdown to drive the pressure on the depreciation of the RMB. Monetary policy and capital interest rates may focus on domestic fundamentals and are mainly favorable for domestic bond markets.
