Yesterday, the RMB (7.2699, -0.0189, -0.26%) on the shore and offshore had fallen below 7.3 in the exchange rate of the US dollar, causing heated market debate.From the end of July, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has continued to depreciate continuously, and has exceeded the 7.2 and 7.3 mark from nearly 7.13.This is unavoidable. The RMB exchange rate at the end of June to the end of July still stops. Why is the appreciation quotation turned around in just one month? What are the factors of the reversal market in July and 8 months?
For a country's currency based on the market supply and demand relationship, the factors that affect the exchange rate trend are more complicated. There are short -term factors such as emergencies and market emotions.Long -term factors are around.However, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar can go through a wave of "inverted V" trend from the ups and downs to fall in less than two months. The medium and long -term factors of slow variables obviously cannot change significantly in such a short time and affect the exchange rate in a short time and affect the exchange rate in the exchange rate.In contrast, short -term factors play an absolutely important role.Among them, the US dollar index (103.2452, -0.1996, -0.19%) and market emotions are the most obvious.
Since the end of July, the trend of the US dollar index can be found that its increase in the last 20 trading days has increased by more than 3%. At the same time, the exchange rate of the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the same period has been less than 2%.However, some other favorable factors supporting the RMB slowly released some depreciation pressure.
However, in the nearly 10 trading days, the US dollar index increased by only about 0.7%, but the depreciation of the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar reached 1.5%, and the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar was accelerating the devaluation rhythm.This is related to the continuous announcement of economic and financial data in July to the weakening of economic restoration, the speed and strength of the adverse cycle regulation policy is less than market expectations, and the impact of risk events in the fields of housing enterprises. These will affect market emotions and confidence, and then thenReflected in the resonance of stock exchange.
In the short term, the RMB exchange rate still has a certain depreciation pressure.The latest announcement of the Federal Reserve Conference implies that the probability of continuing interest rates in the year is greater. The US dollar index still has strong support in the short term.The RMB exchange rate maintains the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar in a weak range, but the weak range will be affected by market emotions and confidence.
In the current environment, changing market sentiment and confidence cannot be separated from policies to respond to market concerns as soon as possible.The policy measures of the People's Bank of China this week are fully affirmed.The "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report in the Second quarter of 2023" released yesterday also proposed to resolutely prevent the risk of exchanges in exchange rates.The second plenary meeting of the State Council emphasizes "vigorously improving administrative efficiency and providing strong guarantee for the completion of various tasks", "ensuring the completion of the annual goals and tasks", "promoting substantial insurance insurance in key areas", and looking forward to the urgency of the adverse cycle regulation to be urgent from time to time.Feeling, increase "horsepower" to escort the economic recovery.
