Affected by RMB (7.1824, -0.0096, -0.13%) since May (7.1824, -0.0096, -0.13%), it once quickly fallen into a new low in the year. How to stabilize the exchange rate is a big topic of the financial market.
On August 1st, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (hereinafter referred to as the Foreign Exchange Bureau) held a working conference in the second half of the 2023 and pointed out that it will pay close attention to the fluctuations of cross -border funds , strengthen macro -prudential management and expected guidance, and maintainThe RMB exchange rate is basically stable at a reasonable balance.
From the perspective of the industry, compared with the 2023 National Foreign Exchange Management Work Conference held by the Foreign Exchange Bureau at the beginning of the year, "Prevent cross -border funds flow risks, strengthen the surveillance and analysis of foreign exchange situation, strengthen macro -prudential management and expected guidance, enrich the macro"Careful policy toolbox"; this working meeting once again emphasized that "maintaining the RMB exchange rate is basically stable at a reasonable balance level", it seems that the relevant departments will no longer allow the RMB exchange rate to decline abnormally.
Affected by this, the negative correlation between the RMB exchange rate and the US dollar index on August 2 was significantly enhanced.
As of 19:00 on August 2, affected by the US dollar index rising to 102.2, the RMB exchange rate in the shore market in the shore market hovered at 7.1760, a slight increase of 10 basis points from the previous trading day.
Wang Chunying, deputy director of the Foreign Exchange Bureau, emphasized that overall, the foreign exchange market has operated overall stability since this year, which has better adapt to the changes in the adjustment of the external environment and highlight the characteristics of the increasingly mature and toughness of China's foreign exchange market.
From the perspective of the industry, in the second half of the year, if the RMB exchange rate is to be basically stable at a reasonable balance level, the relevant departments will further curb the effects of the flock of the foreign exchange market.This requires the relevant departments to further guide enterprises to enhance the risk aversion operation of exchange rates and increase the rational operation of the foreign exchange market at high settlement and sales at high exchange.
In the second half of 2023, the Bank of China and the Foreign Exchange Bureau pointed out that it will promote the long -term mechanism of banks to improve exchange rate risk management services and strengthen support for exchange rates for key subjects.
From the perspective of a shareholder of a joint -stock bank, compared with the Foreign Exchange Management Conference held at the beginning of the year, the "Prevent Cross -border Fund flow risks, strengthen the surveillance and analysis of foreign exchange situation, strengthen macro -prudential management and expected guidance, enrich macro macro"Prudential policy tool box", the Central Bank and the Foreign Exchange Bureau specially emphasized "close attention to cross -border funds fluctuations in the second half of 2023, strengthen macro -prudential management and expected guidance, and maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable level."It shows that relevant departments attach great importance to the situation of cross -border funds fluctuations in the second half of the year.
"In the second half of the year, China will continue the balanced capital flow and smoothly, but it will face many challenges." He believes.一是下半年欧美经济或将遭遇不同程度的衰退，将令中国外贸环境更加严峻，可能会影响外贸顺差对资本跨境净流入的基本面作用；二是尽管美联储加息周期或已结束，但美国Continuing high interest rates or the upside -down extension of Sino -US interest spreads in a longer period of time, which led to a periodic leisure of global arbitrage trading funds in the second half of the year; third, the current overseas investment institutions have high expectations for China's economic performance in the second half of the year.If the actual economic data has a certain gap with their expectations, or cause them to sell the profit of Chinese assets to leave the market at high, causing the capital outflow and the RMB exchange rate to fall abnormally.
The financial marketing department of the joint -stock bank admits that in this case, the relevant departments pay close attention to the fluctuations of cross -border funds ., Global capital influx into emerging markets to cause heat money flow) to prevent the risk of ups and downs of the RMB exchange rate; on the other hand, it can also take measures in time to keep the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable balance level.Stabilizer effect.
