On Monday (September 25), the US dollar against the yen (148.90, 0.0800, 0.05%) touched the highest level since November 2022, which opened the prelude to the new transaction week.
The yen shortness obviously occupies the upper hand. The yen is currently the worst G10 currency that has performed so far this year, and the exchange rate against the US dollar has fallen by about 11.8%.
Last Friday, the Bank of Japan maintained the super loose monetary policy, and maintained a pigeon position with high inflation.Although the policy differences between the Fed and the Bank of Japan are still the key driving force for the rise of the dollar against the yen , the threat of government intervention may be afraid of bulls.
The Bank of Japan intervened as early as September 2022, when the yen depreciated to 145.90. In October, the yen fell below the 150s.
In view of the weak exchange rate of the yen than last year, investors remain highly vigilant, and around 150 is a key level that may trigger government intervention.
It is worth noting that the depreciation of the yen will lead to rising import prices.This was transferred to the producer, raised the expectations of inflation, and consumers felt pain.Such a situation can cause a headache for policy makers, especially considering that the overall inflation and core inflation rates of Japan are still higher than the 2%goal of the Bank of Japan.
In summary, the threat of government intervention makes the US dollar yen a timing bomb that may explode at any time.
