The exchange rate of RMB (7.3223, -0.0212, -0.29%) continued to decline.On September 8th, the offshore RMB to the US dollar exchange rate disk to 7.3682, refreshing a new low since October 26, 2022; the minimum of 7.351 in the coastal RMB to the US dollar exchange rate disk, a new low since the end of 2007.
"The recent pressure of the RMB on the US dollar exchange rate is mainly passive depreciation under the background of the US dollar index (104.8075, -0.2512, -0.24%) stronger and the expansion of the Sino -US spread.The Fed may continue to maintain interest rates at a limited level in the next period of time, and recently several US economy leaders are more active, showing that the US economy is more likely to slow down the growth rate in a soft landing method. At the same time, 0.0019, 0.18%) District PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) data and leading indicators of major economies are relatively low, and risk aversion emotions look up again under the recession concerns. "Pang Yan, director of the Research Department, said that these factors have caused the US dollar index to rise in the near future, which brings short -term, phased and fluctuating pressure on the RMB exchange rate to the US dollar exchange rate.
Recently, the pressure of the RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by many factors: on the one hand, external risk aversion has continued to hear the heating up and promote the US dollar index to rebound strongly. Recently, concerns about the economic recession of the global economy and the euro zone, and the US economy has maintained a steady growth, promoting the promotionThe US dollar index has risen to more than 105, and the yield of US debt has also increased again, which has put pressure on non -US currency; on the other hand, trade data recently announced in August shows that foreign trade departments still undergo pressure and increased exchange rate fluctuations in the short term.
According to Wind data, as of September 8, the US dollar index rose 1.39%within a month; offshore RMB's exchange rate against the US dollar fell by 1.23%within the month of the US dollar, and the exchange rate of the US dollar to the US dollar fell 0.7%.
It is worth mentioning that the People's Bank of China announced on September 1 that starting from September 15th, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was reduced by 2 percentage points, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio was reduced from the current 6%to 4%.
Recently announced the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio and other cross -border capital flow macro -prudential policy tools are more to release policy signals, stabilize market expectations, avoid the occurrence of over -adjustment, and realize orderly fluctuations in exchange rates.With the release of subsequent policy dividends and the dynamic changes in the economic growth situation at home and abroad, the exchange rate trend will gradually stabilize.
From the perspective of a longer time dimension, with the addition of the space for moderate stimulation, reasonable and loose, timely reinforcement, and reverse periodic regulation, the recent recently increased the effectiveness of the various incremental policies, the steady growth, and the continuous effect of expanding domestic demand.It shows that the RMB exchange rate will continue to maintain basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level.
