On October 16th, the intermediate price of RMB (7.3043, -0.0016, -0.02%) was reported at 7.1798, down 23 points, and the intermediate price of the previous trading day was 7.1775.
The probability of maintaining interest rates in November of the Federal Reserve is 89.4%
CME "Fed Observation": The probability of the Federal Reserve's maintenance rate in November of 5.25%-5.50%is 89.4%, and the probability of rating 25 basis points to 5.50%-5.75%is 10.6%.By December, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged was 70.6%, the probability of accumulating a total rate of 25 basis points was 27.2%, and the total probability of 50 basis points increased by 50 was 2.2%.
CICC: The change in the situation in the Middle East has brought a new variable in the exchange market that a new RMB exchange rate has rebounded this week.
On the one hand, the rise in risk aversion will support a certain support for the US dollar exchange rate, but on the other hand, the increase in uncertainty will also make the Fed cautiously act, and the upward trend of US debt yields can also be curbed.Considering that the most important employment and inflation data in the United States exceeded expectations, we judge that the toughness of the economy will make the US dollar occupy the upper hand on the major currencies other than risk aversion currency under the complex situation.In the new week, the market will focus on whether economic data such as retail in the United States can continue to support US bond interest rates, as well as the continuous impact of the Middle East situation on risk preferences and oil prices.In addition, China will announce data in the third quarter of economic activities, and the repairs of the Chinese economy may have an important impact on global risk emotions.
On Wednesday morning, the domestic GDP will be announced in the third quarter, and important economic data such as September, Social Zero, industrial value -added, and real estate development investment. We believe that in the context of the continuous and moderate improvement of economic data, this week's economic data will exceed expectations.Strong possibilities, however, the continuous interpretation of overseas ground political risks may cause certain disturbances to asset prices such as the US dollar.Considering that the US dollar index (106.5372, -0.1640, -0.15%) and US debt yields continue to operate at a high level, the RMB exchange rate may continue to face certain external pressure this week. HoweverStabilize the situation and support the market confidence, and there may be a rebound in the RMB exchange rate.
