Macro Markets Transaction Analysis: Will it be accelerated after breaking the triangle?
Summary:
Despite the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory last week, oil prices still rose.The two oils of the United States and cloth rose 0.86%within the day, rebounding from the decline yesterday.
Fundamentals
The latest data show that as of March 22, the US EIA crude oil inventory of the United States increased by about 3.2 million barrels, which was higher than the expected decrease of 700,000 barrels.The trend of WTI crude oil still looks positive, and is forming a continuation mode of watching a bullish.
As OPEC+production is expected to tighten the global market, crude oil prices are expected to achieve a strong quarterly rise.WTI crude oil futures have risen by 14%this year, and the plan to reduce the production of 2 million barrels per day has been extended to the end of June, which has supported the expected expectations of global inventory.
According to several officials, before the review meeting next week, the representatives did not think it was necessary to make any changes.Ukraine UAV attacks Russia's energy infrastructure, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the demand growth of the Asian economy including India also helps the recovery of crude oil in the first quarter.This has prompted some banks to expect oil prices to rise.While Morgan Chase insisted on existing predictions, he believes that if the impact of Russia's production reduction is not offset by other response measures, the price of cloth oil may reach three digits in September.
Reuters survey shows that with the rise of demand, OPEC +'s production restrictions continue to squeeze crude oil supply that has been affected by the pressure of geopolitical conflict, and oil prices will gain some rising driving force this year.The agency's survey of 46 economists and analysts shows that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2024 will reach $ 82.33 per barrel, which is higher than $ 81.13 per barrel in February.WTI crude oil is expected to be raised to $ 78.09 per barrel, which is higher than the estimated $ 76.54 per barrel last month.This is the first time that the oil price expectations have been raised in 2024 since the investigation of October last year.Florian Grunberger, a senior analyst of data and analysis company KPler, said: "Due to geopolitical risk premium and OPEC+production reduction measures, we expect oil prices to continue to rise until summer."
Technical Noodles
After the WTI crude oil hit a high point of nearly five months last week, the foundation relying on $ 76.80 has begun to rise sharply; however, although the bulls have broken through the triangle collation, we don't think that it will accelerate in the short term.It may be possible to return to the triangle again to adjust to reach a new high, because the time cycle of kinetic energy is not enough.
When the triangle is tideling, there is no depth of the downward break, and it may move closer to the next main resistance at $ 83.50; higher than the resistance level, the price may be accelerated.In the above circumstances, it may even touch the resistance of $ 85.00.
On the other hand, if the shortness appears and the price is pushed back to less than $ 80.33, the first main support level of the downlink is around $ 79.40, followed by $ 78.80, which is lower than the support level. The price may be tested at $ 77.20.Any more losses may cause oil prices to fall to $ 75.00.
On the whole, the rebound of WTI crude oil has stagnated in the past few trading days, and the price hovers around $ 81.50.Nevertheless, the triangular collation mode formed by this interval may imply a breakthrough in the next trading day.
Transaction Suggestion
Trading direction: Multi
Entry point: 80.90
Target point: 85.50
Stop loss point: 79.00
Valid until: 2024-04-11 23:55:00
Support points: 80.22, 79.99, 79.08
Power points: 82.29, 83.33, 85.00
Risk prompts and exemption clauses
Market risk, the investment need to be cautious.This article is for reference only, does not constitute personal investment suggestions, nor does it take into account the special investment goals, financial conditions or other needs of some users.Based on this investment, the responsibility is on the responsibility.
Investment suggestions have not taken into account the special investment goals, financial conditions or other needs of some users.Based on this investment, the responsibility is on the responsibility.
