Whether it is a small pressure that is unable to call the US dollar interest rate, or the basic attitude of the Japanese government on the trend of the local currency, or the supporting force that the Japanese economy fundamentals may be formed, there is indeed the yen.Weak space.
The yen is not only the worst currency in Asian countries since this year, but also the most embarrassing currency in developed economies in the world.Data show that on the basis of a sharp depreciation of 15.01%in the first 10 months, after November, the Japanese yen still showed no signs of reversing the trend.Whether it is a small pressure that is unable to call the US dollar interest rate, or the basic attitude of the Japanese government on the trend of the local currency, or the supporting force that the Japanese economy fundamentals may be formed, there is indeed the yen.The weak space, so that Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Ruisui Bank, and other unrequited predictions, the yen will fall to 155 in the first half of next year.
So far, the five more obvious depreciations of the yen experience have remained closely related to the adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy.The first depreciation was from 1995 to 1997, when the benchmark interest rate in the US dollar was raised from 3.25%to 6%; the second depreciation was 2000 ~ 2001, when the federal benchmark interest rate was raised from 4.75%to 6.5%; the third depreciation was 2005~ In 2006, the benchmark interest rate in the US dollar at that time increased from 1%to 5.25%; the fourth depreciation was 2012 ~ 2015, when it was on the eve of the sixth round of the Federal Reserve, and the depreciation of this round of yen also occurred in the US dollar interest rateContinue within the rise cycle.The changes in the value of the yen at different periods of time basically reflect the characteristics of resonance with the US dollar. In the era when the US dollar becomes a global leading currency, the depreciation of the yen will often have passiveness, including the depreciation of this round.In the case of, the Bank of Japan has taken the initiative to act as a trace of intentional indulgence in the depreciation of the yen.
The Fed has pushed the federal benchmark interest rate to 5.25%to 5.5%. Although this year has suspended interest rates twice this year, it has not released any signs of the softening of the currency policy. At the same timeEssenceAccording to the latest statement of the Bank of Japan, the loose monetary policy will continue, that is, in addition to maintaining -0.1%of the monetary interest rates, the Bank of Japan will also conduct a bond operation in the future.The exchange rate and interest rate are positive. The exchange rate of the US dollar rises due to the tightening of the currency of the Federal Reserve. The yen exchange rate has declined due to the loose currency policy of the Bank of Japan.Therefore, according to the interpretation of the traditional currency theory, the decline of the yen is the suppression of a strong US dollar. In fact, it is not exactly the case. To a large extent, the weakening of the yen is the cause of the country's monetary policy.
The Bank of Japan has maintained negative interest rates for nearly seven years, and it has been for 10 years to purchase bonds (QQE) from the secondary market.Specifically, I hope that with the help of the Japanese yen decline, a virtuous circle of exports, moderate increase in prices, moderate price increases, corporate profits, employment, and continuous improvement of wages are the current expected indicators.sex.The data shows that although the GDP of Japan has achieved positive growth for four consecutive quarters as of the end of September, it does not rule out the possibility of possibility of weakening again. The fact that the most illustrates is that the latest October OctoberManager Index) is only 48.7, and is less than 50 for 5 consecutive months.On the other hand, although inflation has exceeded the policy target value of 2%for 18 consecutive months, whether it can stabilize more than 2%for a long time, it is expected that the Central Bank of Japan is not fully grasped.In the case of not seeing the key indicators continued to go well and stabilized, it is difficult for the daily monetary policy to turn.
In addition to negative interest rates and QQE litage yen, the national bond yield curve control policy (YCC) operated by the Bank of Japan also created a lot of thrust for the yen decline.After two adjustments last year and this year, the elasticity of YCC is currently relaxed to 1%, which seems to have increased a lot, and the Bank of Japan has clearly pointed out the latest policy of 1%of the rate of return.The extent of the free upward rise is not large, so it can still ensure that the Bank of Japan is unlimited and low -cost to purchase government bonds, while putting abundant liquidity to the market.For the Bank of Japan, YCC is also a monetary policy tool that will not give up casually.Data show that the scale of Japanese national bonds has exceeded 100 billion yen. The rise of national bond interest rates involves not only the increasing increase in financing costs, but also may endanger the credit of Japanese national bonds.The purpose of buying a national Treasury bond in Shanghai is the purpose of reducing the long -term interest rate. However, the larger the central bank's buying the government bonds, the more currency flowing into the market, and the more comprehensive space for the yen squatting.
