The world's stock market shocks, and investors seek to understand the interest rate of the United States. Many Wall Streets believe that interest rates have been topped, and the Fed's position is still confusing.Although analysts expect the US economy to slow down in the fourth quarter and may fall into decline, as people's confidence in the Fed's interest rate hike has continued to increase, the US dollar is rebounding from a large selling last week.Before Powell's speech, the dollar rose for the third consecutive day.It is difficult to hide the trend, Canada/RMB (7.2766, -0.0029, -0.04%), to visit the 5.27 position.The US dollar index (105.5000, -0.0322, -0.03%) rose for the third consecutive day, and now the 105.52 increased by 0.01%.
On Wednesday, the New York Fed Chairman Chu Williams delivered a speech that the Federal Reserve has evolved hugely in the way of dealing with economic and policy, but Williams did not comment on interest rate prospects in his speech.
With the continuous decline of the US debt yield, the institution recommends paying attention to two types of funds.Recently, the 10 -year US bond yield, known as the "anchor of global asset pricing", has risen, which has once again attracted the attention of the global market.As of press time, the yield of 2 -year Treasury bonds fell 0.3 basis points to 4.915%; 10 -year US bond yields fell below 4.6%, down 4.2 basis points to 4.530%.Prior to this, the 10 -year US debt yields once exceeded 5%, a new high since 2007. Since then, it has continued to fluctuate downwards. So far, it has fallen over 40 basis points.A number of interviewed agencies believe that the sharp decline in US debt yields will support gold prices to a certain time. In addition, from the perspective of ticket benefits and capital gains, the investment cost performance of U.S. debt has gradually become highlighted.Many institutions suggest that investors can pay appropriate attention to gold funds and US debt funds.
Most of the foreign exchange strategists in the survey predict that the US dollar will be weak in the remaining time this year, because people are increasingly agreed that the Fed's tightening cycle has ended, which also indicates that the US yield is topped.
The Bank of Canada issued the minutes of the meeting today. The minutes of the meeting showed that the members of the Central Bank Commission had a strong consensus that with more clear evidence, the interest rate increased the expected results, and stated that the committee should be patient and keep the policy interest rate at 5%.Other members believe that if the interest rate is maintained at 5%for a long time, it may reduce inflation to the target level of 2%.Before the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, some members of the Central Bank Commission believed that interest rates were more likely to be further raised.
The members believe that the expenditure of the federal and provincial governments may hinder the return of inflation.Members generally believe that inflation expectations have slowed down in the near future, and long -term inflation expectations have remained stable.However, it also said that if the global financial conditions are further tightened or the previous interest rate hike measures have exceeded expectations, the economy may be weaker than expected, and inflation may be lower.The core inflation continues, inflation expectations and wage growth are high, and the abnormalities of corporate pricing behaviors may indicate that high inflation is becoming ingrained.The members agreed that the risk of overall inflation has increased in view of the risk of high recent forecasting of inflation, high core inflation, and rising oil prices.It is quite worried about the lack of inflation in inflation, which may mean that the monetary policy needs more time to play, or it means that the monetary policy is not tight enough.Members of the committee acknowledge that they may need to further tighten the policy to restore prices.In this case, members agreed to re -consider the necessity of interest rate hikes in future decisions, and clearly stated that if they need, they are willing to further increase interest rates.
At the same time, a public opinion survey from Reuters found that once the domestic economy slowed down the door to cut interest rates for the Bank of Canada, the appreciation of the Canadian Yuan in the next year will be lower than the previous expectations.The currency market estimates that the Bank of Canada will maintain the benchmark interest rate for the second time at a 5%22 -year high at the October policy meeting, and will start to relax the benchmark interest rate in April.
In terms of crude oil, members believe that Pakistani conflict increases the risk of high or further rising oil prices.However, today's international oil prices fell below the $ 80/barrel mark, hitting a new four -month low, and the decline in oil prices indicates that investors' concerns about the Middle East issues have been reduced.It is worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter in the United States. The decline in oil prices affects the Canadian dollar and loses its support.
Although the market is still sensitive to the Fed's further interest rate hikes, people generally believe that the Bank of Canada has entered the interest rate hike period, and the market generally believes that interest rate cuts will begin in the second quarter of 2024.
